wiffu

Just some of my random thoughts on startups.

If you find yourself in a startups were your sole and/or primary metric of success is "market share" and you see your market share increasing, don't fall under the assumption that you are succeeding as a startup. Remember, you started at 0%, so an increase is not too difficult to pull off.

The bigger issue of focusing on market share is that you are tricking yourself into believing that startups are not as risky as they actually are. You must take risks and truly innovate for them to succeed.

Your best case with this market share focus is an eventual plateau of success (curve B) far below what you could achieve with the alternative tactic.

That alternative tactic being:  focus primarily on true innovation.  Do something that is not being currently done or do something in a completely different way.  Don't aim for what can be done in the current reality, but instead what can be done in the soon to be reality.  Also start out (and remain) passionate and completely focused your product.

In this case you have a chance of hitting curve D. (that market share amassed naturally).  Yes, the odds are, you will hit curve C but in that case you will hit it quickly and can course correct with a substantial pivot of the project or abandon and move onto the next, entirely different project.  In contrast, with the probable outcome of the market share driven startup, it takes much longer for curve A to drop, meaning, your business will be on the failing track for longer before you detect that a course correction is needed.  At that point, it is probably too late.

Of course "Success" in the graphs below is abstract and entirely open to interpretation, but discussing that would be a whole new post.